Ways to Find Value with Live Betting
Every sports bettor knows that some games don’t lean either way, these can be tricky to wager on. Fortunately, it doesn’t mean that you have to pass on the opportunity to bet.
Live betting, where you have to place bets during the action, provides you with plenty of opportunities to place high-value bets when you are not very comfortable betting on the outcome. The key to success here is to know where to pick your spots.
For most live betting games, the difficult part is getting the odds right as they change constantly play-by-play. This is why you have to master the skill to know when to put a bet down to maximum value. This might seem difficult but if you have the right systems in place you can come out ahead even if you lose the majority of your bets.
There are many online sportsbooks where you can bet on every aspect of the in-game action including the final and the total score, team props and even individual statistics. If you manage to time things just right, you will find opportunities in these in-game matches such that these wagers can become a larger part of your overall strategy.
In this article, we are going to list the things that allow you to find the most value with live betting.
1. Favorite down Early
If you are a sports bettor who likes to take the favourite Moneyline, then you might have probably noticed that the value is not exactly where you would like it to be. Things can get a little dicey, whenever you are risking significant more money than you stand to win.
A simple answer to this predicament can be found with live betting the money line. Whenever a favourite gets down early, the odds will shift in your favour. For example:
A -200 favourite in the NFL may lose the field goal on the first drive of the game that will immediately shift the odds from the initial -200 to -140 or so. This implies that you can still take the better team to win outright but at a significantly reduced risk by giving up only 3 points.
When you are betting on a favourite team that gets down early, it is evident that you are banking on a comeback. Even though it might be tough to bet on a team that’s already losing to win the game, however, if the disparity between the 2 playing teams is big enough, it is still a relatively safe bet.
That being said, you should be wary of live betting the money line on big underdogs to get up early. It might seem like a good idea to bet on a team that is currently winning at the +200 or so, but it can be a risky bet if there is a likely chance of the losing favourite to make a comeback.
2. Player Stat Props Bets
Many sportsbooks allow you to bet on the stats a player will finish at the end of the game, before the start of a game. But you will notice that the odds for these props are not always favourable.
For instance, an NBA star player prop bet might be an over/under total points scored at 25 ½ and -110. It cannot be termed as a bad bet but as a sports gambler, you must look for better values.
Let’s revisit the example above again. If for the said game, in the first quarter the player you target puts up five points, then it is a good start. If you believe that the player is just getting started and will find his shot at the end of the quarter, you might be able to the initial 25 ½ point play at plus-money.
When you are wagering on player prop bets remember that you are betting on the adjustments teams will make. Many time it happens that good coaches can find ways to slow down the best players on the opposing side. This is why it will be foolish to think that a fast start will be continued throughout the rest of the game.
3. Know the Situation
A more applicable situation for a game of football can also be applied to basketball games as well.
We have already hinted you on what to look for in Moneyline live bets. However, nearly all sportsbooks also offer wagering options on the spread throughout the game. Many expert betters prefer the “last drive of the game” bet in close football games.
You have to take a moment to understand what is there you need to work on. Let’s say there is a team that is down 6 points when going into their last drive. This leaves a spread of +5.5 for the losing team, implying if they score at all they’ll cover. What you need to notice that although the other team need just a field goal to cover, it is certain that they will not settle for anything less than a touchdown.
Another example can be a team that’s down 10 with only a few minutes left. Once the losing side gets the ball, their spread might get 9.5, meaning that if they will score, they cover the spread.
In this scenario, a field goal is necessary and there’s a good chance that the winning team who is already in the defence, will concede the field goal.
This is why in the present scenario taking the points will be a smart play.
The lesson you have to take from these specific examples is that the teams will make an adjustment to their strategies based on what they need to do to win or tie the game. Keep this into account when you are making your plays and you can successfully cash in during the final minutes of a game.
4 . The Game Winner
The final minutes of a game is very important for fans. They live to see those final decisive second and game-winning shots, and for sports bettors, these moments can be a goldmine.
We know what you are thinking, isn’t betting on the game-winner a high-risk play?
Indeed, it is, but it’s also a high-value play if you are able to get the right number.
While you are betting in such a scenario, remember that you are betting on individual players as much as you are betting on a team to win, this is why choose wisely.
One of the best game-winner bets to wager on is the bottom-of-the-ninth play when a team is losing by one run. Here if you bet strictly based on value, you have a winning chance.
A team that might be heading into their last at bat down by one can have the Moneyline shift to as high as +400.
It means that if you win only once out of four attempts, you will still come out ahead.
There is also a bet that has made a lot of money for gamblers and that is the under-five-minute Moneyline in basketball. If you are watching a basketball game that is going back and forth with constant lead changes, you can find tremendous value if you bet on the losing team to come back and win.
Also, there is week-after-week during the NFL season, where bettors have a great chance to win money on the final drive.
There can be a number of reasons for the game-winning drive, the lax defence that is more focused on not losing rather than winning, the prevalence of huge pass interference plays, or it can be just that the quarterbacks are performing well in the clutch. There is always an opportunity for a winning drive in NFL when a team is down by one score with the ball and under two minutes to play.
When you are live betting for value, its important that you do not get hung up too much on the overall win-loss record but focus more on the overall numbers in the money column.
We know that betting for value is always inherently risky, but sportsbooks often bank on bettors taking the easier play.
Live betting is the ideal choice for sports bettors who are risk-tolerant and love to win big.