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Dutching: Understanding The Mechanism of Dutch Betting

Dutch betting, more commonly known as Dutching is when you can place a bet on more than one outcome of the same event to win the equal amount if any of the chosen selections win. You can effectively use Dutching as a good way of arbing. In an arbitrage bet you back all the outcomes of an event that guarantees you a profit.

Oddmax has already discussed arbitrage betting in detail. Now let’s look at the basics of Dutch betting and how it works.

Key Principles of Dutch Betting 

In Dutching you can wager on any number of selections in the same sporting event, making equal profits each time.

Dutch betting is ideal for the times when you have narrowed down the possibilities of an event to 2-3 likely outcomes.

In Dutch betting, Dutching fewer selections carry more risk than Dutching several outcomes. The increased number of outcomes lower the variance.

There is another form of Dutch betting known as Reverse Dutching, it is same as the regular Dutching only except instead of arbing you use lay bets here. Rest all of the above principles apply to the Reverse Dutching.

Now let’s dig deeper into the realm of Dutch betting and its pros and cons.

Dutching: Advantages & Disadvantages 

Advantages

Better Winning Chances 

We do not mean profits but the reduced variance by backing more selections. By Dutching you cover more outcomes that decreases the total odds. Lower odds means you have higher chances of hitting a winner. This is one of the main advantages of Dutch betting that helps you preserve your betting bank.

New Opportunities

Building on the previous advantage, with Dutching you can create opportunities in scenarios where you might find it hard to decide between 2 or 3 outcomes. For example, in soccer betting, you may come across an event with the approximately same chance of winning such as 2-1 or 2-0. In such a case you can use Dutching to win instead of risking it all by backing one outcome.

Easily Find Value 

Sometimes gamblers think that just because in Dutch betting they are able to back more selections they cannot find value.

But it is not correct. Let’s take an example of a race where you find a short term favourite that has no value, while there are other bigger priced outsiders who offer positive value. As long as you can use Dutching to get more returns from the combined bets than the ‘fair’ value of one of those outcomes, you are getting the value.

Please ensure that you are always finding the value in each individual selections, else you might end up diluting the ‘good’ (value) bets with Dutching.

Disadvantages

Dilution of Profit

This is what we have mentioned above. In Dutch betting, the more selections you have the less are your total odds. This is why you need to make the decision whether or not the ROI% offered is worth it.

Also, you undo your positive value bets when you include fair or negative value bets from other selections.

As long as your every bet is offering positive EV, you will gain with Dutch betting.

Calculating The Stakes For Dutch Bets

The whole point of Dutching is that you are able to win the same amount on any outcome. It can get tricky to find the right stake size when different odds are involved.

Let’s understand these examples.

Example 1

Assume you are backing 2 selections at 6.0 and 9.0 and want the same amount as return irrespective of the outcome you choose.

If you are staking £100, here’s what numbers will be like:

£100 / 6.0 = 16.66% = £16.66

£100 / 9.0 = 11.11% = £11.11

Total stake = £27.77

16.66% and 11.11% are the implied probability of the outcomes. In case you lose both the bets, you will be losing £27.77.

If you win either of the bets, you get £100 while losing the stake on the other:

£100 Winnings – Stake – Losing Bet = £72.23.

So you do come out with winnings of an equal amount no matter which outcome results.

Still, confused? Let’s understand this with another more detailed example.

Let’s assume that the odds from Example 1 but you just want to risk a total of £50. You cannot put the same stake on both odds, so let’s call the small stake on 9.0 outcome as A.

You will be distributing the £50 as follows:

Calculate the ratio:

16.66 / 11.11 = 1.5 (factor)

This means that the higher stake will be 1.5 times the smaller one.

i.e., (1.5 x A) + A = £50

A (1.5 + 1) = £50

2.5A = £50

A = £50/2.5 = £20 (smaller stake)

£20 x 1.5 = £30 (larger stake)

Total stake = £50

This is how you can easily calculate the stakes to be put on different outcomes. It is better to apply the formula to a spreadsheet so you always get the right stakes.

Calculating The Combined Odds Of A Dutch Bet

In Dutching you always back multiple selections which inevitably means you are betting on ‘combined’ odds.

To maintain a good overall price, you need to consider that you have to calculate the value of individual outcomes. This is the right strategy to give the combined odds the best chance to earn profit in the long run.

How exactly you calculate the combined odds then?

Here’s the Simple Formula

Combined odds = potential returns / total stake.

Suppose you combined odds in such a way that the selections return twice your stake. So for a total of £100 stake, you will earn a return of £200 (£100 profit), which is equivalent to betting at 2.0 odds.

Dutching Arbitrage

Have you ever tried to work out a scenario where you can back every outcome of a sports event, securing profit whatever happens?

Arbitrage Dutching is the way to go for it and it doesn’t require you to take the service of a betting exchange.

In Dutch Arbitrage a sports bettor is able to produce Bookmaker overround of less than 100%. Problem is no one single Bookmaker will ever offer such an overround. This is why we use multiple Bookmakers offering different odds here.

For instance, support in a tennis match, there can be two outcomes, and bookmakers will offer varying odds:

Bookmaker1 offers odds for Player1 at 1.5, i.e. a 66.67% chance.

Bookmaker2 offers odds for Player2 at 3.5 This implies a 28.57% chance.

In this scenario the total overround is: 66.67 + 28.57 = 95.24%.

This means the two bookmakers are not aligned in this event and there is a clear +4.76% ROI for bettors to achieve in this Dutch.

We can better illustrate the significant of +4.76% advantage by creating an equal risk Dutch, as we did above. Again we will use £100 wager:

£100 / 1.5 = 66.67% = £66.67

£100 / 3.5 = 28.57% = £28.57

Total stake = £95.24

If Player1 wins, the numbers become:

(£66.67 x 1.5) – 66.67 (Player1 stake) – £28.57 (Player2 loses) = +£4.76 profit

When Player 2 Wins, we have:

(28.57 x 3.5) – 28.57 (Player2 stake) – £66.67 (Player1 loses) = +£4.76 profit

And this is it. No matter the outcome, you have a +£4.76 risk free profit.

Why Does Arbitrage Dutches Occur?

It might not happen often, but sometimes one or more bookies are wrong in their pricing that results in Arbitrage Dutching.

Suppose in the example above, if the Bookmaker2 thinks that the 3.5 odds is too high for Player2 and reduces it to 2.5 then numbers become:

66.67 + 40.00 = 106.67%.

This creates an overrround of 6.67%, which is a negative edge for the player who is backing both the outcomes. Mostly you will find this scenario after all bookmakers are in the profession of making money and not losing.

How to Easily Find Arbitrage Dutch Bets?

That depends entirely on your method of betting and how you go for it. There are several arbitrage finders online who offer you risk-free Dutches as part of their service.

OddsMax recommends that you learn about more than a few service providers for Dutching as it will help you decide which services you can rely on for long term profits.

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