OddsMax Sports Betting News

Top 10 Football Bet Analysis Tips To Double Your Success Rate

Football bet analysis is an excellent way to move past the pundits and soccer tips from random websites to strengthen your long-term success. We understand that most new bettors use tips to improve their chances of success, but that’s a lazy move. To be truly able to ensure you are going to be successful as a sports bettor, you need to learn the key elements of football matches. We at OddsMax work with soccer statistics database all the time which is why we are able to help our readers with the most valuable football analysis and prediction.

To find more value in your next soccer bet you can make use of the football bet analysis tips that we are about to share.

How to do best bet football analysis? 

There are several areas of football that need to be analyzed for finding the best value in a bet.

  1. Understanding the home team advantage
  2. Consecutive results as a demonstration of performance
  3. Where is the Smart Money moving – odds portals and odds comparison services
  4. Understand difference success rate, probability and implied probability
  5. Goals scored and goals conceded are not ideal for goal-scoring performance prediction
  6. Using value and expected value considerations
  7. Trend analysis – is the trend long-term or short-term?
  8. Frequency and recency, both are important
  9. Consider the sample size of your selection models
  10. Adopt the common traits of successful sports bettors

Follow these tips right, and you will be able to take your football bet analysis to a whole new level.

  1. Understanding the home team advantage 

In almost every sport, the home team advantage works but that is not the same for every team. Familiarity with the playing conditions at home stadium and fan following may be the reason, but when you dig deeper into the data, you will find that teams show a certain amount of home advantage-greater or lesser.

Country Leagues           Qty Matches      Home Wins       Avg. Home Win Odds  Home Win (%)

Brazil league 1                         438                         234                         1.90                        53%

Brazil league 2                          431                         182                         2.08                      42%

England league 1                       552                        262                          2.18                     47%

England league 3                       818                         338                         2.24                      41%

In the table above, we can see that different leagues have different home and away team winning percentages for the home teams. This is why you must not decide about betting on a team based on just the home advantage alone. This is why you can modify your calculations to take into account the minimum/breakeven home odds for each of the leagues. By using the average, you can maximize the home team win odds, especially for 1×2 betting markets. You can rearrange the data to only list the average home odds that are greater than the break-even odds. This will provide you with the data that can you can use to set up a betting strategy based on home odds with a higher probability of success.

  1. Consecutive results as a demonstration of performance 

Consecutive results demonstrating the consistency of team performance over time is one of the best tools for successful bettors, but unfortunately, it’s notoriously difficult to find the best measurement period and the number of games to review.

Interesting, it is always possible to find data and metrics that support your prediction but to find out the real hidden soccer betting secrets you need deeper football match bet analysis. The most profitable are the findings that are not available before you started looking for the data.

Confused?

Simply put, when you already have a prediction made, it is easier to find examples to prove your prediction correct. However, when you just review the data that’s not relevant to your prediction then you find information that uncovers consistent performance. For instance, to evaluate a team consistent team performance, you might be looking at the win, losses, draws, goals and other numbers within a league. But if these stats were the failsafe records of a team’s consistent performance then we will win every time we put a wager on a team with unbeaten match records in a league. But we all know it is never true.

This is why it is important to study the more recent performance data of the teams to form an opinion keeping in mind that sometimes a team can perform consistently but still fail to get results. It will be foolish to neglect such a team based on a just number of wins. You need to find the potential value by following the team and identifying the teams they will be playing in the upcoming matches.

  1. Where is the Smart Money moving – odds portals and odds comparison services

In sports betting, you always have people who work within the industry or have family and friends in the industry who provide them with information that you don’t have.

It’s just a fact that you need to accept that some bettors will always have more information than you. This will help you realize that you are competing with people who either have more skills or knowledge than you. So, your final betting strategy must be based on your belief, your calculations that are based on expected value and real data and understanding how the smart money is moving the betting market.

There are plenty of real-time odds sites like OddsMax that provide you with the current view of odds that provides you with a direct window into the bookmakers’ world when they make changes to the odds as news announcements about injuries, transfers, suspensions, etc. are made. Placing large wagers on a specific team is often seen to drastically change the odds. Such changes happen closer to the kick-off more often than a week before the match. This indicates the smart money bettors are constantly reviewing the matches and basing their betting strategy on public or hidden criteria.

If you track a match same as smart bettors do then you will learn how such bettors make a sensible prediction prior to a match.

  1. Understand difference success rate, probability and implied probability 

We believe that sports bettors can vastly improve their success rates if they start thinking about the teams that are more likely to perform well rather than simply letting the attention-grabbing headlines related to unbelievable goal scores, unbeaten winning records and team buildup.

It may sound simple but understanding the difference between success rate, probability and implied probability. This football bet analysis requires you to innately understand your personal betting performance and recent performance of the teams.

Suppose you are betting on a team to beat another based on their previous performance then you entirely miss to consider a bookmaker’s implied probability or your betting success rate within a market. When you link your betting performance with a match selection it means you understand where you tend to win or tend to lose selections over time. This will help you join the value with the expected value to further strengthen your ability to identify correct selections. This will ensure long-term accuracy of your value calculations.

An important part of football analysis and prediction is that you review your historical betting data to understand how your success rate is for different betting markets, leagues in those betting markets, and teams in those leagues. This will provide you with a clear view of where you are winning and where you are losing. This insight will help you recognize when the bookmaker’s improbability and real probability makes difference in betting performance.

  1. Goals scored and goals conceded are not ideal for goal-scoring performance prediction 

Your football bet analysis must not consider the value of goals scored and goals conceded as the ultimate predictor of goal-scoring performance. You have to realize that the number of goals scored is relative as the defensive and attacking abilities are fluid and vary for each team based on their opponent.

When you review the goals scored data for a team you are betting on you have to keep into account to relatively football match bet analysis a team to understand the home and the away goal-scoring ability in comparison to the opponents. Relatively weighting the goals scored and goals conceded provides you with a reliable methodology to compare teams especially when they have a similar number of goals scored or goals conceded but vastly differ in their abilities and historical performance records.

  1. Using value and expected value considerations

When you base your betting selections on expected value and value, it means you can make better choices on future selections. Reviewing your data and incorporating different value calculations will help you choose the most realistic selections over the long-term.

You must be wondering what’s this expected value is all about?

Expected Value (EV) in soccer betting is “the statement of future returns if identical bets were placed against identical matches with identical conditions an infinite number of times.”

OddsMax has already covered calculating expected value so we won’t be discussing details here. When you correct your betting calculations based on EV, then you realize that you almost double your chances of securing profitable and positive results over the long term that makes you a more consistently performing soccer better than you were before.

  1. Trend analysis – is the trend long-term or short-term?

Trends are a good parameter to understand and analyze the performance of a team over a defined period. In soccer, this defined period is usually 6 to 10 matches to understand whether a team’s performance is a long-term or short-term deal.

Trends provide a good overview of an individual team’s performance that many long-term successful bettors are known to use to improve their success rates. There are a number of soccer statistics databases that provide you with detailed information on some different trends, which exist for different teams. When you have the ability to create trends based on various metrics of the numbers like goals scored, matches won and losses, you get an insight to pick better soccer odds.

  1. Frequency and recency, both are important 

Basing your bet football analysis on Head to Head results will not provide you with a reliable methodology to be long term success. Such numbers do not include any home or away performance data. Suppose you are analyzing a team based on its head to head score lines in the past 3, 5 or 10 matches, you are only getting a partial picture with no clear view of the best selections.

You have to understand that frequency is one thing but recency is entirely different. Instead of just focusing on the frequency of results occurring you have to check how recent a significant result appears within a team’s historic data.

Especially if you are betting goals over and goals under, this strategy will work well as you will find the clear data on whether your chosen team has participated in matches with the opponent previously and how they have fared against the desired scoreline. Discovering the frequency of these matches and how recent the favorable last score was attainted by your team is an excellent way to gain more confidence in the matches and there in your selection.

This football bet analysis tip is more of an art than science, but to be a long-term success you have to master both the frequency and recency.

  1. Consider the sample size of your selection models

For football bet analysis, statistics are important but a stat that is not based on large enough sample is not reliable and can be a disaster.

A large sample size corrects a lot of issues within your football data. For instance, if you have a large data set then you can easily find a trend if it continues over an extended period. It will be much easier to predict the occurrence of the trend again.

You can easily increase the sample size by checking out different selections and choose the data from different sources. Suppose you are analyzing a team to win at home against a team that plays away, it will be helpful to understand whether the home team generally wins against the opposition of the same caliber.

  1. Adopt the common traits of successful sports bettors 

We can talk a lot of successful bettors, but all such personalities share some common personality traits apart from strict discipline. Learning and adapting these characteristics will make you eligible to be a long-term successful bettor.

We have discussed the common traits of successful bettors in detail.

There you have the top 10 tips to improve your football bet analysis.

You do not have to be scared about making mistakes as every journey has hurdles. The only way to get better with your sports betting analysis is to start your journey and keep learning. Gradually you will acquire the skills and become better with time.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.