Soccer fans across the globe but especially in the United States prefer the point spread to bet. Also, known as the traditional way to bet on football, there is no particular reason why we must favor point spread. Sure, it is the simplest of most soccer odds and always offers a good chance of winning, but other betting odd types also have merit.
The moneyline wager is regarded by many bettors as the best alternative to point spread betting. In the article, we are about to explore how football moneylines works and how you effectively bet making use of moneylines.
The Basic of Football Moneylines
If you have been betting point spread all your life, then you will find football moneylines a little atypical but it is not. In reality, a moneyline wager is even more straightforward as here the points a team win doesn’t matter. In this type of soccer betting, you are only staking your money on the team that will win. Your wager will be a success as long as the team wins irrespective of how many points.
You will better understand it with an example.
| Belgium vs Cyprus
|Belgium +120||Cyprus -200|
Now to bet on this market, you need to make a calculated guess on which team is going to win. In this example, Cyprus is a favorite while Belgium is the underdog. If you are confused why is that so, it is because Cyprus is priced lower at -225 which means to win $100 betting on the team, you would have to stake $225. While Belgium is placed at +120 that would make you $120 for every $100 you bet.
The gap between the set of odds for the two teams underlines the major difference between betting the spread and betting the moneyline. In point spread wager, the odds for the teams involved are usually the same or close. It is because point spreads are created for making both teams close to even money propositions.
However, with moneyline, the things are different unless the two competing teams are closely matched. In this type of soccer odds, a team has got more than 50% chance of winning while the underdog has less than 50% chance of winning the game, which gives you more control over the risk versus reward ratio. This is one of the reasons why football moneylines is a recommended alternative to the point spread. There is more flexibility here to choose between a higher potential payout at a higher risk or lower potential payout at a lower risk.
That being said, the real challenge with moneyline betting is to understand which option to take and when. The choice ultimately comes down to your judgment and there are no definite rules to guide you to when picking the favorite or the underdog.
As we have covered the basics of the football moneyline betting, it’s time we share some strategies to pick the favorites or the underdogs.
When and How to Bet on Moneyline Favorites
It is usually hard to find value when betting moneyline favorites because betting public put wager on the favorites that leads to lower odds for them. While betting on the favorites now have a good chance of winning, however, it might not be enough, given the lower odds.
If you think it implies you can never find value in moneyline favorites, then you are mistaken. Just with enough patience, you can find the right opportunities during several games. The number of opportunities is reasonable throughout the season, yet there are chances. Mostly you will have an opportunity when:
- Bookmakers undervalue a favorite
- Spread point might be too high to risk the money
One of the best strategies to use moneyline for football betting, looking for undervalued favorites can be a gold mine. The amount of hard work involved is high but you get to find excellent winning opportunities at reasonable odds.
The first step in this direction is to find a suitable game. Keep away from high profile games as these attract most bettors; bringing down the odds for the favorites. For the same reason, avoid games where one of the teams is very popular. Once you are able to find the right game, it’s time to fully assess both the teams and situational factors that can potentially affect the outcome. After that, you have to calculate the probability of the moneyline odds on the favorite team.
If the value we get is lower than the implied probability of the odds, then we have found the opportunity to place a wager.
Spread too high
When you are confident about the favorite team to win but are not sure if they’ll cover the spread, then it is an opportunity to bet on the moneyline favorite. As it doesn’t matter by how many points the favorite wins, you will have a successful wager. The only downside is you will get lower odds as compared to point spreads for the same market.
Although this might seem like a safer option, you must not do it too often. If there is a good chance of the favorite covering most of the spread, then you should not walk away from value just for the sake of being safe.
Strategy for Betting Moneyline Underdogs
Betting on moneyline underdogs is harder as finding games where the favorites face a challenge is very unlikely. Betting on underdogs here will ask you to find the factors that both the bookmakers and the general betting public might have overlooked.
However, if somehow, you are able to find good opportunities to back the underdog then there is serious money to be made. As we mentioned earlier, the weight of money is always higher on the favorite side, the soccer odds for moneyline on the underdog is always high. We cannot help you a lot here, as there is nothing that can for sure help you find out opportunities where the underdog has a good chance of beating the favorite. You can only rely on your analysis and remember that the underdog doesn’t have to have more likelihood of winning than to lose for you to make profits.
Also, if the underdog on a spread is covering 3 points or less it is better to back them on moneyline instead. This is because if they are covering a small spread, then they have a good chance of winning, football moneylines on the underdog will give you higher profits in such a situation.
You don’t have to stick the point spread when betting to make profits. Moneyline betting can be much more valuable for soccer fans, provided they know how to identify opportunities in high-risk markets. We hope our guide will help you to best use football moneyline for betting.