Football is no easy game to predict. With so many factors that can affect the outcome of the game in many ways, premier league betting is not easy. The uncertainty in the game is because it’s not a repetitive sport but rather highly unpredictable. This is why every game of soccer is unique.
With all the rumours, paper-talk, speculations, touchline dramas, bans and sacking it is not easy for football fans to always remain rational. If you bet on big events like the premier league you need to know about some general advice.
Here are the premier league betting tips that you all must know about.
1. Do not fall for the hype, instead use it for your advantage
Football is more or less of entertainment business. All the hype about the matches, signings and the drama on the pitch, it is there to sell the game.
The hype is one of the ways how value can present itself in the betting markets. You do not have to believe our words, but there are examples of how hype can work in favour of bettors.
Man United During Their “Post Fergie” Transition
We have to be honest here, Manchester United was never the same after Fergie left them. The team underwent so many managers and player changes since his departure, the winning mentality gradually eroded. As a result, it was a turbulent, transitional period for the United as they were rebuilding.
But interestingly the betting markets were oblivious to this fact and they treated the team as the ‘same old United’ and it was often clear from the soccer odds being offered. This wasn’t the reality and the team were not in any shape to withstand the competitors with better teams.
In such a scenario the fans who were still tied to the name “Man United” took the odds for a run leaving an opportunity to find the value.
2. Remember that Teams Don’t Change Over Night
In premier league betting you must never be swayed by the spontaneous drop or improvement in a team’s performance. Whenever such an event occurs within a short span, the team will inevitably revert to their original form.
Here are some of the examples of how the reversion has worked for some of the teams in history.
Did you think that Leicester would be winning the Premier League title the next season when they were fighting a relegation battle the season before?
Michael Owen did not believe it will happen and he was slated for stated that the team will be in a relegation battle the following season. But as history tells, the estimated proved to be entirely wrong and Leicester did drift back to their performance.
Chelsea seems to be in a vicious circle for some reason where they build a title-winning team, self implode and then start over again.
The team’s ‘off’ seasons are an occurrence that has benefited a lot many teams and it was during one of these seasons when Leicester won the league. In that particular season, not only they slipped from the top four slots they plummeted to 10th. It was not only disastrous for the team but also a peculiar Premier League season.
3. Monitor the Goal Difference
Many experts believe that goal difference is the best judge of a team. There is a lot of truth in this conclusion and you can learn the same if you look at Spurs failing year after year to win the league.
Goal difference can tell the real story, here’s an example:
For many years 5th spot is loved by the Spurs which is not a that bad result if you compare their abysmal goal difference to other teams stacked around them in the table. It the AVB era when Spurs were only able to beat the weaker opponents marginally but were easily drubbed by the top 4. Their defence was so weak that they were not even considered a serious challenge for the title. Ironically, Spurs have the talent in defence that is fitting for a title win but the team lacks a pacey frontman.
Referring to the goal different throughout the season you can help you identify how’s the teams’ position in the league. As the result begin to reflect their performances, you will understand where teams stand in reality out of the hype. This one of the simplest premier league betting tips we can give to beginners.
But one of the drawbacks of basing your strategy on goal difference is that it can be skewed by the big losses or wins. However, its still a vital stat that helps you paint a clear picture and gives far more insight than the points tally alone.
4. Assess a Team’s Attacking Prowess
This premier league betting tip I build on the previous one. In the Premier League attacking teams with leaky defence do relatively well. No, this idea goes against the populist belief that in football, teams must build from the back.
Let’s have a look at some examples.
The team have been plagued with defensive frailties in a few past seasons. What does it mean for the team? If you look at the Liverpool’s 2013-14 table below, you will see despite an inferior defence to local rivals Everton, they have achieved 2nd place with their exceptionally powerful strike force.
This proves that a combination of strong attack and mediocre defence tends to finish higher than a strong defence and mediocre attack. But this makes teams prone to shock results.
5. Psychological Factors are real
This premier league betting tip is the trickiest to apply.
Even though we know that psychological factors exist in football we still cannot measure their impact. While it’s impossible to pinpoint what psychological factors will influence a game as they exist inside the minds of people but some factors are commonly known.
We still don’t know how or why a home advantage works in the favour of a team, but still, we have seen that it works in games that host teams with closely matched abilities. Maybe it’s the fans and chants or the reduced travel time. However, home advantage is not a constant factor.
It is that some teams simply cannot or seldom can beat a particular opponent. That’s the very much case of Spurs against Chelsea
In order to produce long-term profits, you have to be consistently smarter than the betting markets. With Premier League betting you are going against thousands of other bettors and this brings bookies odds into line. If you utilize the tips we shared here, you can use this competitive market to your advantage.